Free daily card · priced twice a day, re-checked before games
The day's best plays, graded in public.
Every check prices every spread and moneyline at the major US books against Pinnacle, the sharpest book in the world, and runs the best of them past today's injury and lineup news. The strongest plays at sensible prices go on the card; long shots stay off it. Every pick is graded after the game, wins and losses alike.
Today's card
The best 10 plays on today's slate, at the best price among the major US books, checked against the sharp market and against today's injury and lineup news. Edge means the price beats the sharp market. Lean means a read on the matchup at a fair price, no price edge. Every play is graded in public. Shortly before games start, a late check reads the news again and pulls any pick it has turned against.
Saturday, Nov 7
EdgeNHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild · Saturday, Nov 7, 5:10 PM PT
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +215 at BetRivers
Best price +215 at BetRivers against a fair +193 (consensus of 4 books); +7.5% expected value at that price.
EdgeNHL · Chicago Blackhawks at Carolina Hurricanes · Saturday, Nov 7, 5:10 PM PT
Chicago Blackhawks +2.5 -115 at BetMGM
Best price -115 at BetMGM against a fair -124 (Pinnacle); +3.6% expected value at that price.
EdgeNHL · Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche · Saturday, Nov 7, 6:10 PM PT
Detroit Red Wings +1.5 -120 at BetMGM
Best price -120 at BetMGM against a fair -124 (Pinnacle); +1.6% expected value at that price.
Sunday, Nov 8
EdgeNFL · New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs · Sunday, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 +100 at LowVig
The Jets ruled out WR Garrett Wilson (concussion), their top receiver. Patrick Mahomes practiced fully all week, and we get Chiefs -9.5 at even money when the fair price is -103.
EdgeNFL · Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins · Sunday, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT
Miami Dolphins +6.5 -102 at DraftKings
Detroit ruled out five players: LB Jack Campbell, S Kerby Joseph, C Cade Mays, CB D.J. Reed and EDGE DJ Wonnum, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (rib) is questionable. Miami's final report had only three players, all questionable at worst, and QB Malik Willis has no game status.
LeanNFL · Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts · Sunday, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT
Indianapolis Colts +5.5 -115 at FanDuel
Best price -115 at FanDuel against a fair -117 (Pinnacle); +0.9% expected value at that price.
LeanNFL · New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles · Sunday, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT
Philadelphia Eagles +3 +100 at FanDuel
Best price +100 at FanDuel against a fair -100 (Pinnacle); +0.0% expected value at that price.
EdgeNHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets · Sunday, Nov 8, 3:10 PM PT
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +180 at BetRivers
Winnipeg is playing without Hellebuyck, who was traded to New Jersey, and starter Stuart Skinner has an .882 save percentage. The +180 price is better than the +175 fair price.
EdgeNHL · New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs · Sunday, Nov 8, 4:10 PM PT
New Jersey Devils -1.5 +180 at BetRivers
Toronto played Montreal on Saturday with Bobrovsky in goal, so it's on the second night of a back-to-back and will likely start a different goalie. New Jersey is 11-5-0, has won three straight and now has Connor Hellebuyck.
EdgeNHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks · Sunday, Nov 8, 5:10 PM PT
Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline +112 at BetRivers
Anaheim is missing Troy Terry and AJ Greer, and likely starter Lukas Dostal has an .865 save percentage. +112 is better than the +108 fair price.
Card record: 13–19, -8.89 units, beat the closing line 27% of the time.
News checked: NFL Week 10 injury report: Player statuses for all 14 games · Week 10 injury report for Sunday's slate of NFL action · NFL Week 10 inactives: Players ruled out for Sunday's 12 games · NFL Week 10 Injury Report, Inactives: QB C.J. Stroud, WR Brian Thomas Jr. Out
How to read the card
Each pick is one bet at one sportsbook's price. Here is what every part of it means.
- Edge
- The price at the book beats the fair price by 1% or more. The fair price is Pinnacle's line, the sharpest market in the world, with its margin removed.
- Lean
- A read on the matchup (injuries, lineups, rest, news) at a fair price, without a price edge.
- The price
- American odds. A minus price is what you risk to win $100: -110 means risk $110 to win $100. A plus price is what $100 wins: +135 means $100 wins $135.
- Fair and % vs the sharp price
- Fair is what the price would be with no bookmaker margin, from Pinnacle's line. The % is how much the price beats fair, as expected value: +3% means about 3 cents per dollar over many bets like it. An estimate from market prices, not a promise.
Every other term on the board (6)
- Beat the closing line
- The price taken was better than Pinnacle's last price before the game. Doing that over many picks is the early sign of a real edge, long before wins and losses settle.
- Late check
- Shortly before games start, the news is read again. A note shows what it found, and a pick it turns against is pulled and never graded.
- Units
- The record counts every pick as 1 unit, so it adds up in units, not dollars. A unit is whatever one standard bet is for you.
- Stake up to
- On the sharp-price alerts: the most to put on that price, as a share of your betting bankroll (a quarter of the Kelly amount, capped).
- Side plays
- Long shots with a clear price edge (4% or more), kept off the main card. Small stakes only.
- Sharp moves
- Pinnacle's price moved since the last check. The numbers are its implied chance before and after.
Sharp-price alerts
Only plays at sensible prices that beat the sharp price. Soonest games first, because those prices go first. Check the book before you bet; if the price is gone, skip it.
Starts soon within 6 hours Today within a day Later more time to shop
No price at BetMGM and Caesars beats the sharp market right now. That's normal: most checks find only a few, and some find none.
The record
Every card pick is logged when it's made and graded from the final score, wins and losses alike. The closing-line number is the early test: beating Pinnacle's last price before the game over many picks is how a real edge shows up, long before wins and losses settle.
| Game | Pick | Price | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL St Louis Blues at Nashville Predators | St Louis Blues moneyline | -104 BetOnline | St Louis Blues 1 – Nashville Predators 3 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NCAAF TCU Horned Frogs at Arizona Wildcats | Arizona Wildcats -7.5 | +101 LowVig | TCU Horned Frogs 28 – Arizona Wildcats 29 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NBA Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers | Los Angeles Lakers moneyline | -139 BetRivers | Portland Trail Blazers 118 – Los Angeles Lakers 124 | Won (+0.72u) |
| NBA Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks | Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 | -105 ESPN Bet | Toronto Raptors 121 – Milwaukee Bucks 107 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NBA Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans | Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline | -162 BetRivers | Minnesota Timberwolves 115 – New Orleans Pelicans 109 | Won (+0.62u) |
| NBA Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks | Dallas Mavericks moneyline | -246 DraftKings | Utah Jazz 100 – Dallas Mavericks 112 | Won (+0.41u) |
| NBA Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans | New Orleans Pelicans moneyline | +152 FanDuel | Minnesota Timberwolves 115 – New Orleans Pelicans 109 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NBA Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies | Memphis Grizzlies moneyline | +148 FanDuel | Oklahoma City Thunder 128 – Memphis Grizzlies 97 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NHL Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche | Nashville Predators +1.5 | -130 FanDuel | Nashville Predators 3 – Colorado Avalanche 2 | Won (+0.77u) |
| NFL Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens +10 | -108 BetMGM | Jacksonville Jaguars 33 – Baltimore Ravens 10 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NHL Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets | Vancouver Canucks +1.5 | -124 FanDuel | Vancouver Canucks 2 – Winnipeg Jets 6 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NHL St Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils | St Louis Blues +1.5 | -150 FanDuel | St Louis Blues 4 – New Jersey Devils 5 | Won (+0.67u) |
| NHL Utah Mammoth at Montréal Canadiens | Montréal Canadiens moneyline | +110 BetOnline | Utah Mammoth 4 – Montréal Canadiens 5 | Won (+1.10u) |
| NBA Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers | Miami Heat moneyline | -194 FanDuel | Miami Heat 117 – Los Angeles Clippers 116 | Won (+0.52u) |
| NHL San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings | Los Angeles Kings -1.5 | +165 BetRivers | San Jose Sharks 2 – Los Angeles Kings 7 | Won (+1.65u) |
| NBA Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans | New Orleans Pelicans moneyline | -215 FanDuel | Utah Jazz 113 – New Orleans Pelicans 120 | Won (+0.47u) |
| NHL Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres | Buffalo Sabres -1.5 | +190 BetRivers | Ottawa Senators 2 – Buffalo Sabres 1 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NHL Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers | Florida Panthers -1.5 | +108 BetRivers | Chicago Blackhawks 3 – Florida Panthers 5 | Won (+1.08u) |
| NHL Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers | Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 | -114 FanDuel | Chicago Blackhawks 3 – Florida Panthers 5 | Lost (-1.00u) |
| NCAAF Central Michigan Chippewas at Eastern Michigan Eagles | Eastern Michigan Eagles -1.5 | +104 LowVig | Central Michigan Chippewas 35 – Eastern Michigan Eagles 7 | Lost (-1.00u) |
Older sharp-price alerts (before the daily card, including some long shots): 2–7, +1.99 units.
A real edge still loses often. The record means something after a few hundred graded picks. Until then, watch the closing-line number.
Crypto read
Trend, momentum and market mood for the big three. Every rule is backtested on years of daily prices against an ordinary 7-day stretch, and only rules with a proven edge are sent as signals.
25 extreme fear
| Coin | Price | 7 days | 30 days | RSI | vs 200-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $75,511 | -2.5% | -7.6% | 37.6 | +3.2% |
| ETH | $2,225 | -1.2% | -10.0% | 38.9 | +3.2% |
| SOL | $88.77 | -6.9% | -19.0% | 29.6 · oversold | -0.2% |
- Fell below 200-day averageunprovenHistory: 64 signals, +1.6% vs a normal stretch, right 50% (normal 48%)Live: 1 flag, first score due 7 days after each
- Extreme fearunprovenHistory: 99 signals, +0.3% vs a normal stretch, right 55% (normal 52%)Live: no flags yet
- Back above 200-day averageunprovenHistory: 65 signals, +0.3% vs a normal stretch, right 57% (normal 52%)Live: no flags yet
- RSI oversoldunprovenHistory: 101 signals, +0.1% vs a normal stretch, right 56% (normal 52%)Live: 3 of 4 right, average +1.8% after 7 days
- Extreme greedno edgeHistory: 34 signals, -2.1% vs a normal stretch, right 47% (normal 48%)Live: no flags yet
- RSI overboughtno edgeHistory: 237 signals, -4.0% vs a normal stretch, right 41% (normal 48%)Live: no flags yet
| Coin and rule | Per year | Worst drop | Sharpe | In market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Just hold | +63.7% | -84% | 1.08 | 100% |
| BTC Hold above 200-day | +60.4% | -71% | 1.16 | 62% |
| BTC 50-day above 200-day | +56.7% | -72% | 1.09 | 62% |
| BTC Above 200-day, vol-sized | +50.0% | -53% | 1.25 | 62% |
| ETH Just hold | +79.8% | -94% | 1.1 | 100% |
| ETH Hold above 200-day | +94.2% | -81% | 1.27 | 56% |
| ETH 50-day above 200-day | +71.1% | -87% | 1.1 | 55% |
| ETH Above 200-day, vol-sized | +62.0% | -43% | 1.38 | 56% |
| SOL Just hold | -12.2% | -94% | 0.33 | 100% |
| SOL Hold above 200-day | +18.1% | -59% | 0.57 | 42% |
| SOL 50-day above 200-day | -5.9% | -69% | 0.19 | 44% |
| SOL Above 200-day, vol-sized | +16.2% | -38% | 0.6 | 42% |
How it works
Check
Twice a day it pulls the spreads and moneylines for the NFL, NBA, NHL, college football and MLB, at the books you can bet and at Pinnacle.
Compare
It strips the bookmaker's margin from Pinnacle's price to get a fair price, then measures how much each available price beats it.
Alert
Prices with an edge go on this board and out on Telegram, with a suggested stake (quarter-Kelly, capped). It never places a bet.
Grade
After the final score, each price is graded and checked against Pinnacle's closing line. Nothing is deleted.
Built by Everything Is 9
This whole system runs without a server.
Data feeds, scheduled jobs, grading, alerts and this site all run on free tiers. The one paid part, the AI that reads the news, works inside a fixed daily budget, and the card still posts from the numbers when it's off. Everything Is 9 builds automated systems like this for businesses: watchers, alerts, reports and AI agents that do the daily work.